Selloff next week?

[Vanraw]

Some short term musings about where I think the market is going ......

Its all about the news.

I think we are approaching a bottom from a news cycle perspective. Today's sell off looks like it will be China fears of growth. The next big thing is going to be the Jobs reports next week. 5/31 is the ADP and 6/1 is the labor department.

My take is those jobs reports are going to be the drivers of the market over the next month.

- China and euro trash seemed to be priced in.
- JPM bull shit is settling down.
- Iran and North Korea are all meandering around with nothing really new on the horizon.
- While China economy can still be a concern / unknown, I'm not sure anything will be explosive.

So whats on the news horizon? Jobs (may 31 and June 1) and GDP Q1 preliminary (May 31). I think GDP is going to be at its 2.x disappointing level, which is one of the reasons the market went to the bears. But if the Jobs data doesn't reflect an additional 200k plus private sector jobs, it may get ugly.

So in short, I am now slightly bullish. I think the DOW and S&P may drop to the high 11k and 1.2k ranges respectively, but those will be bottoms. If the Jobs data is ok or good, I think we are now at the bottom...... However if the jobs data is terrible, we could see a very large sell off that would put the dow back under 11k like it did last July / August.

just some rambling thoughts.