07-30-2012, 07:21 PM
As you know, I'm an eternal Apple bull. But yes, I have definitely been concerned that eventually an iPhone release just won't click with the mass public. Maybe even the iPhone 5. There are some leaked photos in which it looks very very similar to the iPhone 4, but with a longer screen (4" vs 3.5") and a smaller dock connector. That's going to disappoint some people expecting a radical redesign.
I don't care about how it looks - I'm buying it regardless. A faster processor, 4G, Siri, and possibly NFC are plenty for me to upgrade. But there are lots of people out there (especially in China) who need a new phone to "look" different from their last one, so people know they have a new phone. I don't mean the Apple faithful, I mean Joe (or Jill) Public who wants to make a statement that they have the latest thing. And companies like Samsung meet that need perfectly, spurting out a new phone every few months.
But on the other hand, Apple doesn't NEED to double revenue and profits every year. They aren't Amazon - they don't have a PE multiple of 287. It's 14 for the last 12 months, or 11.3 looking forward. They are priced to have no growth at all, but even the last "disappointing" quarter showed an 22% YoY revenue gain, and a 88% YoY increase in iPad sales.
In September they are releasing the new iPhone, a new smaller iPad, a thinner update of the current iPad, and a new range of iPods. There's a good shot they also announce iTV before Christmas. And China mobile, the largest phone company in the world, will be carrying the iPhone for the first time. I think they will be fine. Even if the iPhone 5 doesn't sell 51m phones. They might not hit $1000 in the next 6 months, but if they keep growing at 20-25% a year (which is way lower than now), they will get there soon.
Having said all that, I suspect that 51m phones is going to be way too low an estimate. There are an awful lot of people who have been holding off replacing their current phone (like my wife and I) so they can get this one. Demand likely won't be their problem - it's a question of whether they can provide enough supply.
I don't care about how it looks - I'm buying it regardless. A faster processor, 4G, Siri, and possibly NFC are plenty for me to upgrade. But there are lots of people out there (especially in China) who need a new phone to "look" different from their last one, so people know they have a new phone. I don't mean the Apple faithful, I mean Joe (or Jill) Public who wants to make a statement that they have the latest thing. And companies like Samsung meet that need perfectly, spurting out a new phone every few months.
But on the other hand, Apple doesn't NEED to double revenue and profits every year. They aren't Amazon - they don't have a PE multiple of 287. It's 14 for the last 12 months, or 11.3 looking forward. They are priced to have no growth at all, but even the last "disappointing" quarter showed an 22% YoY revenue gain, and a 88% YoY increase in iPad sales.
In September they are releasing the new iPhone, a new smaller iPad, a thinner update of the current iPad, and a new range of iPods. There's a good shot they also announce iTV before Christmas. And China mobile, the largest phone company in the world, will be carrying the iPhone for the first time. I think they will be fine. Even if the iPhone 5 doesn't sell 51m phones. They might not hit $1000 in the next 6 months, but if they keep growing at 20-25% a year (which is way lower than now), they will get there soon.
Having said all that, I suspect that 51m phones is going to be way too low an estimate. There are an awful lot of people who have been holding off replacing their current phone (like my wife and I) so they can get this one. Demand likely won't be their problem - it's a question of whether they can provide enough supply.
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Currently PvPing in the stock market