Apple

[Grieve]

Well...definitely ouch, but a few things I'd say in response.

First, Apple has always been a company to not release stuff until it's ready. Arguably they didn't do that with Maps, and look what happened. So I say, if it's not done yet, screw what the market wants and wait until it is. I'm a software developer, and I'd love to work for a company that based the release on when the product is ready, and not on a date that is decided on before we even start.

Following on from there, there has been a lot of chatter recently about delays to pretty much everything they are working on - the retina iPad mini, the iPhone 5S, the budget iPhone for China, the iWatch, and the iTV. So I suspect that some of that stuff WAS going to be announced in March, but has now been pushed off...maybe to the third or fourth quarter. I don't blame Cook for that. Jobs was always a perfectionist, and it looks like that hasn't changed.

Apple NEVER pre-announces when stuff is coming out. The problem is that "analysts" decide when they think a product is getting released, and then when that doesn't happen its a big black mark on Apple. The iTV is a pretty good example of that. Analysts having been saying it's imminent for years - based on what?

As for the cash, I'm sure they will be announcing a bigger buyback and/or dividend. Maybe next week with earnings, but more likely a couple of weeks after that. But I doubt it will be huge. Sure, they have $135 million, but most of that is overseas. They'd have to pay a massive amount of taxes to repatriate it. Other tech companies have even more cash hoarded, as a percentage of their market cap.

Ultimately, this is pure anxiety by investors. They don't like the fact that Apple seemingly isn't releasing products when they think they should be. They think Android is taking market share. They think they aren't competing in China. We've seen this story before. AAPL fell to $82 in 2008. Four years later it was almost 9 times that.

Times like this aren't fun if you have options (I do, and it has cost me dearly), but I'm also holding a lot of the stock, and I'm not particularly worried. It will hit new highs. Maybe later this year, maybe next year, maybe 2015. But it will happen. For the next few months there's a good chance it's dead money, though.

Next week's earnings are probably going to be bad. And guidance for the following quarter will likely be even worse. Is it already priced in? Who knows? I guess we'll find out. But I believe the second half of the year is going to be big.