Where next?

[Grieve]

Q. What will the xmas season be like in America.

I heard an interesting segment on CNBC this morning, pointing out that something like 60% of spending is done by those earning $250k or more, and with the stock market roaring back the way it has, those people are feeling flush with money. So it could be quite a bit better than expected.

Q. When will unemployment percentage start to dip. Its 10.2 It may have started to flaten, but when will it drop to the low 9.x or below 9.

I think it will peak in Jan or Feb, start to noticably dip around May or June, and probably won't get below 9% anytime in 2009.

Q. What will energy prices do?

I think oil will hit $100 again at some point next year, with gas at $3 or $3.50. The better the economy and stock market does, the higher oil will go. If we do have a double-dip recession, I think it will slump back down to $40. If Israel or the US bombs Iran, though, all bets are off. $200?

Q. Am I in fear of losing my job, and is it impacting my spending? On a scale from 1 to 10.

Too late - I already lost mine. Luckily I just got a new job (the same week my first child was born - eventful few days!), so hopefully I can hang onto that for at least six months...

My spending? More accurate would be my wife's spending, which I can confirm is as high as ever!

Q. What good news or bad news will move the market for the first 3 quaters of 2010?

- Residential and commerical real estate will hit banks hard - not only will they stop paying back the government, they may need more!
- Health care will pass, but very watered down. Health care stocks will go up.
- China, Brazil and other emerging markets will continue to outstrip the US in their recovery (or at least I hope so, I'm long EDC).
- Apple will announce their new tablet and updated iPhone, stock will hit $300 (take that, Maul!!)
- GM's Volt will be delayed to 2011. However, as gas prices rise hybrids and plug-ins will again rule the world.
- My prediction:The Dow will test, but fail to pass, 11,000 by the end of this year. In 2009 it will correct back below 10,000, before resuming a slow rise. 12,000 by the end of the year.