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amins Wrote:Well, since you said you enjoyed talking about this stuff.... /opens can of worms.
Mind going through the 'fundamentals', what they are and how they are used to figure a companies growth/target prices?
Example:
I know for charting, I draw my trend lines, then support/resistance to get the bigger picture or direction of the trades. I then use Patterns (consildation, continuation, candlesticks, etc) and indicators (macd, stocastics, moving averages, bollinger bands, etc etc) to either support (in which case confirming the trend and buying) or hold (waiting for a breakout/confirmation).
How are fundamentals used, in this context, seeing as how this is the way most large firms base thier investment & risk management when it comes to clientel portfolio's?
The simplest and most basic measure is earnings. Of course you analyze a companies balance sheet to compare it to competitors in terms of captial structure (how much debt vs equity they use to finance their assets) as well as looking at cash flow management -- but earnings is the key once you filter out companies that know how to finance their assets safely and manage their cash. Once you filter out those companies, you look at future earnings and predictability of those earnings. That's the guess work of fundamentals, the rest is simply math and the time value of money. Obviously there are companies like Coke that are more predictable, and companies like VmWare that are less predictable.
Back to earnings and the time value of money. Once you've estimated future earnings, you take those earnings and discount them to their present value. That process simply involves computing all future cash flows for a certain period of time, and discounting them to todays dollars based on some discount rate. That discount rate is the rate of return you require to make an investment of this type of risk. For example, you can invest in a 10 year Treasury and get 2.96 percent, just a little over inflation. This risk level is low (the US governement will probably not default any time soon) whereas investing in GM is more risky and hence you would have gotten 12% on GM bonds in the recent past. The more risk, the higher the return demanded by investors.
more later, if this is the type of info you wanted, let me know
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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TRADE NOTICE:
SELL SELL SELL
GRT.
Closing price 4/24
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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By the way, Thanks Grieve for managing this. Im having fun.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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^^ what he said!
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Dustie Wrote:bonestomper Wrote:i am having a decent day (so far)
and i blame me for that.
Why not blame Grieve? Did you know he's British? Dustie and his family are sitting at the next table to us in Bob Evans right now...it might be my best opportunity yet to offline PK him...
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Ill pay 10k PVP stock money if you stick a "I luv Obama" bummber sticker on his car.
Pics required....
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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Grieve Wrote:Dustie Wrote:bonestomper Wrote:i am having a decent day (so far)
and i blame me for that.
Why not blame Grieve? Did you know he's British? Dustie and his family are sitting at the next table to us in Bob Evans right now...it might be my best opportunity yet to offline PK him...
How bizarre was that?! I was headed up to my parents WV hide-out to cut down some trees, chain saw some stuff and use a lot of gas (4 wheeler, Gator, etc) and on the way up, there, sitting next to me at lunch is Greive.
In your honor, I left a few trees standing and turned off the Gator while chain sawing new paths (instead of leaving it running as I usually do).
"Hamilton is really a Colossus to the anti republican party. Without numbers he is an host within himself. They have got themselves into a defile where they might be finished but too much security on the republican part will give time to his talents and indefatigableness to extricate them. We have had only middling performances to oppose to him. In truth when he comes forward there is nobody but yourself who can meet him. His adversaries having begun the attack he has the advantage of answering them and remains unanswered himself. For God's sake take up your pen and give a fundamental reply to Curtius and Camillas" - Thomas Jefferson to James Madison
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Ha!
Some of the best mountain biking, atv, dirt bike'n is up in the mountains in BC where they've clear cut...
So, at least Dusite's not highering logging companies to clear cut so he can go ride his atv.
lol
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Sell:
NTY
BUY:
SLB
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TRADE TRADE TRADE Close on 4/27
SELL SELL all my
UGA
PGH
BUY BUY BUY
BRK.A (1 share)
AIG (3500 shares)
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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Some of you have said you don't know much about Technical Analysis...
1) http://www.thefinancialpuzzle.blogspot.com/
2) http://www.thefinancialpuzzle.com/homepage/index.html
They're offering free webinars right now. I've been through all 3 of thier 'levels'... it's totally opened my eyes. I knew next to nothing, which now i know just above next to nothing, before i started. Some of you vetrerns though, this would make a whole lot more sense combined with your fundaments.
the first class is free (class is 2 months, twice a week). Tell them I sent ya. I don't get anything for it. I'm just passing this along because I'm having a ton of fun here with you all.
You guys know a shit load more than I do about politcs/economy and it's been great learning from listening to ya'll debate and argue.
Cheers.
Thier 20/20 class, costs 20 bucks, but talks about Credit Spreads (Bull Puts, Bear Calls), and might be a good indicator as to weither or not you would want to spend time doing thier classes.
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Cool stuff Amins. Thanks for sharing.
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Sell:
====
BBBY
BAC
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I bet I'm winning now!!!!
According to my track, I think I'm at 190k.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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Hey Im back from vacation! Sell all CVC and NEM please!
BUY: BABY
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i may not be winning, but HOG is making sure i am beating Breandan....
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HOG is in for a correction...I stand by that =)
I know Im not using a strat to stay competitive in this, I'm definitely a slow and steady guy. But hey if I can go a full year with a portfolio above 30% I will be very happy with myself.
My RL portfolio is up 43%, mostly thanks to a PIR buy at .62.
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Grieve!!! Dude!!! Who is winning?
According to my google track, I just hit over 200k!!
$200,656.09 (for those of you with a fear of big numbers, Thats 2 Slamz mattresses)
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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yeah i could use an update. I have my protfolio in google but it doesnt have the recent changes i made. Im 140kish I think.
My RL portfolio is doing much better which i will gladly take =) PIR 250% return now =)
PGH had a HUGE rebound too.
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Breand Wrote:PGH had a HUGE rebound too.
Yea, right after I sold it.... I have that kind of power.
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
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So I'm looking for the next area of movement. We saw the Bank run up, and and over all bounce that anyone could have made money on. But I think the pickings will be a bit different from here on out.
Assuming the American economy will continue its recovery, what will be the next big move.
I looked at Shipping specifically DRYS and other shipping companies to be the first to start seeing movement. DRYS's has made a huge run. Hit $10 yesterday, up from $ something at its low. (I sold way to early  .
After Dry Shipping, would the next move be the carriers like UPS, FedX, os some other CDL trucking company?
A lot of analyst seem to be thinking that Tech will have a huge run soon.
Seems to me the recovery sectors would be in some sort of an order.
- Financial
- Shipping
- Technology
- Housing / construction
- Energy
- Retail
Thoughts?
Maul, the Bashing Shamie
"If you want to change the world, be that change."
--Gandhi
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Im saying energy is a safe bet. Still low but we've seen a huge rebound. We will start seeing inflation and recovery pricing itself into energy. China despite their downturn will still have a big need for oil. Plus hurricane season is on its way.
personally Id stay away from Tech. For short term bounces housing related industries may see a quick bump.
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Anyone heard about turning the Real Estate market into Future options, so that people can hedge thier way down as prices fall?
I'll try to find the link, it was on http://www.bnn.ca monday/tuesday.
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Sorry sorry sorry about the lack of updates - I've been swamped at home and work, and just didn't have the bandwidth to sit down and crunch all the numbers. Just caught up - see latest results below and on first page:
Players (as of end of day 5-06-09)
1 (2) $205,186 (+105%) Vanraw
2 (1) $200.149 (+100%) Zephyrs
3 (3) $187,693 (+88%) Grizzle (backdated)
4 (6) $176,501 (+76%) Hoofhurr
5 (4) $168,465 (+68%) Bonestomper
6 (5) $156,954 (+56%) amins
7 (10) $154,283 (+54%) Thudz
8 (5) $146,155 (+46%) Dustie
9 (9) $144,737 (+45%) Breand
10 (8 ) $131,593 (+32%) Grieve
11 (11) $127,415 (+27%) Venganza
12 (12) $100,000 (-) Slamz
Gratz to Maul, who sneaks back past Zephrys to retake the lead. Meanwhile, despite his late start, Hoof is hoofing it up the list to 4th, and Thudz is climbing back up by getting in Citi at just the right time.
Meanwhile...urgh...Dustie and especially I suffer from getting out at exactly the wrong time. The stocks I sold on April 14th have risen $28,519 since then, especially BAC, FAS, BX, and FXI. Oh well...
Top stock pick of all time goes to Zeph, with a 274% return on Citi - nice.
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You guys play too many alts. If you stuck with one character you'd get good at it and pwn face. :lol:
Caveatum & Blhurr D'Vizhun.
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